Here’s when government data may come back

The recent government shutdown in the United States has caused a delay in the release of important economic data. With Congress expected to reopen soon, there will be a need for catch-up in various agencies, particularly in the departments of Labor and Commerce, to resume data collection and releases.

Goldman Sachs economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker highlighted that the shutdown has put a halt on nearly all federal economic data releases for September and October. Once the government reopens, it will take some time for statistical agencies to work through the backlog of reports. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will need to update its schedule of releases, including the nonfarm payrolls report, the consumer price index (CPI), and other key metrics.

The BLS plays a crucial role in providing essential economic reports such as the payrolls report, CPI, producer price index, and more. Goldman Sachs anticipates that the October jobs report may be released shortly after the reopening, possibly by next Tuesday or Wednesday. However, other major data releases are expected to be delayed, pushing back the November payrolls and inflation reports by at least a week.

In addition to the BLS reports, the Department of Commerce releases important data on personal spending and income, retail sales, durable goods, and the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) reading. Once the data freeze is lifted, economists predict that the reports will indicate a slowing labor market, inflation remaining elevated, and positive but moderate economic growth.

Federal Reserve officials have acknowledged the inconvenience caused by the lack of regular data reports. Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that alternative data sources indicate little change in the macroeconomic outlook since September. Despite the delay in official reports, the outlook for employment and inflation remains relatively stable.

Looking ahead, economists had been expecting a decline in nonfarm payrolls for October, with estimates varying between a loss of 50,000 to 60,000 jobs. Inflation rates are expected to gradually decelerate through 2026, with the official PCE report scheduled for release on November 26.

Overall, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker forecasts third-quarter growth at a 4% rate, while Goldman projects fourth-quarter growth of 1.3%. These projections suggest a modest upward revision in economic growth, putting the full year on track for a 2% annualized gain.

As the government prepares to reopen and resume regular operations, the resumption of economic data releases will provide valuable insights into the state of the U.S. economy. Stay tuned for updates on key economic indicators and trends as agencies work to catch up on the backlog of reports.