AIPAC faces calls to reassess strategy after split results in Illinois

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee recently faced a mixed outcome in the first major test of its political influence in the midterms. The organization has drawn criticism from both its opponents and some allies for its involvement in four competitive Illinois House primaries.

In two of the races, AIPAC-supported candidates emerged victorious. Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller defeated former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. in the 2nd District, while former Rep. Melissa Bean triumphed over a group of progressive challengers in the 8th District. However, the group faced backlash for failing to secure its preferred outcomes in the races where it had invested the most money.

In the 9th District, AIPAC spent $7 million, targeting Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, who eventually won the primary. The group later shifted its focus to attacking progressive social media influencer Kat Abughazaleh. In the 7th District, an AIPAC-affiliated super PAC spent nearly $5 million supporting Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, who ultimately lost to state Rep. La Shawn Ford.

These results come on the heels of AIPAC’s controversial decision to target another pro-Israel candidate, former Rep. Tom Malinowski in New Jersey, which backfired and led to a victory for a stronger critic of Israel, progressive Analilia Mejia.

Despite the mixed outcomes, AIPAC-aligned super PACs spent nearly $22 million in the Illinois primaries, winning two of the four open-seat races. The organization defended its actions, stating that Illinois voters rejected several anti-Israel candidates across heavily Democratic races.

However, AIPAC’s involvement in the primaries has sparked renewed scrutiny, particularly as Americans, including Democrats, are shifting away from Israel. Recent polling data shows a significant negative shift in Democrats’ views towards Israel, with many believing that the U.S. is too supportive of the country.

AIPAC’s ads in the Illinois primaries focused on issues other than Israel, accusing candidates of lacking progressiveness on various fronts. While the results are not expected to bring significant ideological changes to the Illinois Democratic delegation’s stance on Israel, there may be a shift with Miller replacing Rep. Robin Kelly, who has been critical of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Despite the criticism, AIPAC allies have defended the organization’s actions, emphasizing that wins and losses are part of the political process. Rep. Brad Schneider, an AIPAC ally, expressed support for the candidates backed by the organization and highlighted the importance of their presence in the Chicago delegation. In a recent statement, Schneider emphasized the importance of pushing boundaries in political races. He noted that winning every race may indicate a lack of innovation and boldness in campaigning strategies. This sentiment was echoed by Brian Romick, president of the Democratic Majority for Israel, who observed that Israel did not play a decisive role in the recent primaries. Romick highlighted the defeat of extremist anti-Israel candidates as a positive outcome.

Critics of AIPAC celebrated the results as a rejection of the group’s hardline tactics, including the use of shell PACs to obscure outside spending sources. The victory of Biss, in particular, was seen as a sign that AIPAC’s influence can be overcome. Democratic candidates and strategists are now bracing for potential intervention by AIPAC in upcoming House and Senate primaries.

Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of J Street, a rival organization to AIPAC, expressed confidence that candidates need not fear AIPAC’s spending or intimidation tactics. He emphasized that the recent election results should serve as a message to candidates nationwide. Despite some setbacks, AIPAC is expected to maintain its influence through the midterm elections. A pro-Israel Democratic donor adviser pointed out that AIPAC’s fundraising efforts are likely to continue unabated, with a focus on highlighting successes rather than failures.

Looking ahead, the political landscape remains complex and competitive. As candidates navigate the challenges of fundraising and campaigning, organizations like AIPAC and J Street will continue to play significant roles in shaping electoral outcomes. The recent developments underscore the importance of strategic planning and adaptability in the ever-evolving realm of political campaigns.

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