Bitcoin Just Hit A Historic Metric — Is $150,000 Next?
Bitcoin closed the third quarter of 2025 at a record high, sparking optimism among investors for further price increases in the final quarter of the year.
The price of Bitcoin ended September approximately 5% higher at around $114,000, defying the usual seasonal weakness expected during this month. Historically, positive September closes have often led to significant gains in the fourth quarter, as seen in years like 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, where rallies of over 50% followed.
Analysis from Bitcoin Magazine Pro indicates that early-quarter strength is crucial, with October historically delivering average gains of 21.8% and November adding 10.8%.
If historical trends hold true this year, Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 by the year-end. This prediction aligns with the ongoing trend of new all-time highs in 2025, following the halving event in April that reduced the asset’s new supply and typically leads to upward price movements.
While Bitcoin has been range-bound in recent months, key liquidity indicators suggest a potential breakout on the horizon. Factors such as global M2 growth, stablecoin supply trends, and the rally in gold, which Bitcoin has mirrored with a delay, all point towards upward momentum.
Happy ‘Up’tober
Bitcoin surged above $118,000 today amidst the U.S. government’s official shutdown after Congress failed to pass a funding bill. This event triggered a flight to safe-haven assets, driving gold to a record high above $3,900 per ounce.
The shutdown’s immediate impacts include disruptions for federal workers, Social Security recipients, and travelers, while financial markets may face challenges due to halted economic data releases.
The delay in weekly jobless claims, September payrolls, and mid-October inflation figures could complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions moving forward.
Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buy-in
Institutional involvement is bolstering positive sentiment towards Bitcoin. BlackRock’s transfer of over $130 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase is interpreted by some market observers as a signal of potential inflows into its investment products.
Historically, Bitcoin has seen an average gain of almost 58% in the fourth quarter since 2015, outperforming other three-month periods consistently. The trajectory for 2025 will depend on how long investors maintain their appetite for risk in the coming months.
