Bitcoin Price Can’t Break $90k As One-Month Battle Continues
The bitcoin price has been experiencing volatility around the $90,000 level during the holiday season, with sharp movements lacking the volume needed for a sustained breakout. Despite rising about 2.6% in low-liquidity sessions and holding above $86,000, the cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain the $90,000 level in Asian trading.
Currently trading at $87,465, with a 24-hour volume of $52 billion, bitcoin sits approximately 3% below its recent high of $90,230. The market capitalization stands at around $1.75 trillion, based on a circulating supply of nearly 20 million BTC.
According to QCP Capital, the recent price action lacks the necessary participation to push prices higher. Following last Friday’s record options expiry, open interest dropped by nearly 50%, indicating that many traders have sidelined themselves.
The record options expiry has marked a shift in market structure, with dealers who were long gamma before the event now being short gamma to the upside. This setup forces dealers to hedge by buying spot bitcoin or short-dated call options, potentially amplifying price moves and creating a feedback loop during rallies.
Earlier this month, a similar pattern emerged when bitcoin briefly traded near $90,000, causing funding rates to rise as dealers adjusted their positions. Deribit’s perpetual funding rate surged to over 30% following the expiry, reflecting crowded bullish trades and increasing the cost of maintaining long positions.
During the recent rally attempt, heavy activity was observed in the BTC-2JAN26-94K call option. QCP Capital mentioned that a move above $94,000 could trigger gamma-driven buying, but sustained spot demand would be necessary for a breakout.
The macro backdrop has added to market volatility, with bitcoin’s push towards $90,000 coinciding with rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions. Despite being considered a hedge against fiscal imbalances, bitcoin has struggled to maintain gains in the face of global economic uncertainties.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin Magazine analysts suggest that the broader market continues to reject lower levels within a broadening wedge pattern, indicating weakening downside momentum. Bulls are urged to break resistance at $91,400 and $94,000 to regain control, with a weekly close above $94,000 potentially leading to a move towards $101,000 and $108,000.
Critical support is identified at $84,000, with a breakdown potentially sending the price towards the $72,000-$68,000 range. Short-term liquidity may be thin during the holiday period, but large options expiries near $100,000 could influence price action. Overall sentiment remains cautious, with bulls showing resilience but still awaiting confirmation.
In conclusion, the bitcoin price continues to fluctuate around $87,000 during the Christmas holiday sessions, bouncing between $86,000 and $90,000. The market remains uncertain, with key levels and market dynamics influencing price movements.
