Bombing Iran’s underground Fordo nuclear plant might not be effective, one expert says
A U.S. attack on a key Iranian nuclear facility may not have the desired impact, according to a national security expert familiar with Iran’s program. In an interview with ABC News, Joe Cirincione, who has extensive experience researching nuclear proliferation, emphasized that even with the use of massive bunker-buster bombs, the effectiveness of such an attack is uncertain.
The focal point of President Donald Trump’s decision on whether to strike Iran is the Fordo nuclear enrichment facility located in northwest Iran. This facility is reportedly constructed deep inside a mountain, potentially more than 300 feet, and fortified with concrete. The weapon in question, the GBU-57 A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet inside an underground target before detonating.
Cirincione explained that while attacking Iran’s nuclear enrichment program could severely impair its nuclear weapons capability, it may not completely eliminate it. The Fordo facility presents a challenging target, as even the bunker-buster bomb may not be able to penetrate the extensive layers of mountain and reinforced concrete protecting it.
He highlighted the complexity of the operation, suggesting that multiple bombs would be needed to create sufficient damage. However, even if some destruction occurs, Cirincione pointed out that Iran possesses the necessary knowledge, resources, and infrastructure in other locations to continue its nuclear program.
In essence, the expert cautioned that a military strike on the Fordo facility, even with advanced weaponry, may not achieve the desired outcome of halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The country’s resilience and dispersed nuclear facilities could enable it to recover from such an attack and continue its nuclear activities relatively unimpeded. As diplomatic tensions persist between the U.S. and Iran, the complexities and uncertainties surrounding a potential military strike on Iranian nuclear sites remain a topic of significant concern and debate. The recent resolution passed by the International Atomic Energy Agency has brought to light Iran’s violation of non-proliferation agreements by stockpiling enriched uranium. The IAEA’s director general, Rafael Grossi, revealed that the Fordo plant, where the illegal activities were taking place, is located half a mile underground.
Following the IAEA’s actions, Israeli forces launched attacks on Iranian targets, prompted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s warning that Iran could potentially create a nuclear weapon in a short period. However, Iranian officials have vehemently denied these claims, asserting that they have no intention of developing nuclear weapons.
Amidst escalating tensions, the White House has indicated that a decision on whether to launch an attack on Iran will be made within the next two weeks. This decision comes at a critical juncture, with the possibility of military strikes looming large.
Experts have warned against the repercussions of military intervention, emphasizing that a peaceful resolution is the only viable option. According to Joe Cirincione, military strikes will only serve as a temporary deterrent and will not address the underlying issue of Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He stressed the importance of diplomatic negotiations to secure a commitment from Iran to halt its nuclear activities.
In light of these developments, it is imperative for all stakeholders to prioritize dialogue and diplomacy in resolving the ongoing crisis. The international community must work together to find a peaceful solution that ensures regional stability and prevents the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Only through concerted efforts and cooperation can a lasting resolution be achieved.
