BTC could have major upside according to one metric

Bitcoin faced a significant drop in late November, with the price tumbling to nearly $80,000. This led to a decrease in the ratio between short-term holder supply in profit and short-term holder supply in loss, reaching a level of 0.013. Historically, whenever this ratio has hit such low levels, it has signaled either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low, as seen in previous instances like 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022, according to data from Glassnode.

Short-term holders, defined as investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days, saw a decline in supply in profit to around 30,000 BTC at the November low. On the other hand, supply in loss spiked to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022.

Since the beginning of 2026, Bitcoin has rebounded to approximately $94,000, showing a 7% increase. During this period, supply in loss dropped to 1.9 million BTC, while supply in profit surged to 850,000 BTC, resulting in a ratio of about 0.45.

When the ratio approaches 1, it typically continues to expand beyond that, signaling a sustained upside phase for Bitcoin. With the current ratio below 0.5%, there is still room for significant further expansion before reaching equilibrium. Historically, market tops have not occurred until the ratio rises towards 100.

This data suggests that Bitcoin may still have room for growth before reaching a market top, based on the behavior of short-term holders and the supply dynamics in profit and loss. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, these metrics provide valuable insights for investors looking to navigate the volatility of digital assets.