Deckers Outdoor’s Competitive Edge Eroding As HOKA Slows, Tariffs Mount: Analyst

Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:DECK) saw a decline in its stock price on Friday after analysts downgraded the company following its fourth-quarter financial results for FY25. The company reported revenue of $1.02 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.01 billion, and earnings of $1 per share, beating analyst estimates of 59 cents per share.

Due to heightened uncertainty in the upcoming year, Deckers chose to provide guidance for the first quarter of FY26 instead of its usual full-year guidance. The company expects revenue in the range of $890 million to $910 million and earnings per share between 62 cents and 67 cents, falling short of analyst estimates.

KeyBanc analyst Ashley Owens downgraded Deckers from Overweight to Sector Weight, citing concerns about the future trajectory of HOKA, a brand under Deckers’ umbrella. Owens highlighted weaker customer acquisition, macroeconomic pressures, and a shift towards wholesale expansion as factors contributing to the downgrade. The analyst also expressed concerns about recent price increases potentially dampening consumer demand.

Despite Deckers’ strong historical performance, Owens noted that HOKA is losing its competitive edge compared to other high-growth running brands. The analyst revised EPS estimates for the first quarter of 2026 and 2026 downwards.

Additionally, Telsey Advisory Group analyst Dana Telsey downgraded Deckers to Market Perform from Outperform and reduced the price forecast. Telsey acknowledged Deckers’ strong fourth-quarter performance but expressed concerns about HOKA’s growth deceleration and uncertainty surrounding revenue outlook due to consumer response to pricing increases.

In conclusion, the downgrades from analysts were influenced by factors such as slowing growth in HOKA and direct-to-consumer channels, margin challenges from a shift towards wholesale, potential increased discounting, and tariff costs amid broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Investors will be closely monitoring Deckers’ performance in the upcoming quarters to gauge the impact of these challenges on the company’s financial outlook.