Despite Being Volatile, Bitcoin Is Looking Strong
Bitcoin has experienced a tumultuous fourth quarter in 2025, marked by a sharp drop in prices and heightened volatility. In December alone, the leading cryptocurrency saw a 9% decrease in value, accompanied by levels of volatility not seen since April of that year.
VanEck, a prominent digital asset analysis firm, recently released its mid-December “ChainCheck” report, providing a detailed assessment of the current state of Bitcoin. According to VanEck’s analysts, while on-chain activity remains lackluster, liquidity conditions are showing signs of improvement. Additionally, speculative leverage seems to be resetting, offering a glimmer of hope for long-term investors.
One of the key observations highlighted in the report is the contrasting behavior of different investor groups. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have been actively accumulating Bitcoin, with a significant increase in holdings recorded in December. This stands in contrast to Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) investors, who have been reducing their exposure to the cryptocurrency, signaling a shift towards corporate accumulation over retail-led speculation.
Furthermore, VanEck pointed out that some DATs are exploring alternative financing methods, such as issuing preferred shares, to fund their purchases and operations. This strategic approach reflects a long-term vision and commitment to Bitcoin’s potential growth.
A notable trend identified by VanEck is the divergence between medium- and long-term holders of Bitcoin. While tokens held for one to five years have seen significant movement, suggesting profit-taking or portfolio rotation, coins held for more than five years have remained largely untouched. This indicates that shorter-term participants may be offloading their assets, while long-term holders remain steadfast in their belief in Bitcoin’s future.
On the mining front, Bitcoin miners have faced challenges in the form of a falling hash rate. Network hash rates dropped by 4% in December, the sharpest decline since April 2024, as regulatory pressures in regions like Xinjiang led to reduced mining output. Despite the challenges, VanEck notes that historically, declining hash rates have often preceded positive returns in the medium term.
Looking beyond daily price fluctuations, VanEck evaluates Bitcoin’s structural health using the GEO framework (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity). While on-chain metrics like new addresses and transaction fees have shown weakness, improving liquidity and the accumulation by DATs offer a positive counterbalance.
In the broader context, macroeconomic trends, such as a weakening U.S. dollar, have added complexity to Bitcoin’s outlook. The rise of “everything exchanges,” which integrate stocks, crypto, and prediction markets, could potentially enhance Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility in the future.
Despite the challenges and uncertainties, VanEck sees the current environment as one of structural recalibration for Bitcoin. As 2025 comes to a close, the cryptocurrency may undergo a period of consolidation, reflecting the maturation of the market. This could set the stage for strong positive price movements in the first quarter of the following year.
