Here’s how much ACA premiums would have risen this year without tax subsidies

The looming expiration of subsidies that help millions of Americans pay for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act is causing concern for many as we approach the end of the year. Experts are warning that failure to extend these tax credits in Congress could have dire financial consequences for individual policyholders and lead to increased healthcare costs overall. Approximately 22 million Americans rely on these subsidies to lower their monthly premiums, which were introduced in 2021.

Recent data from investment adviser SmartAsset sheds light on how much people across the country would have paid on average for their ACA coverage in 2025 without the enhanced subsidies. The analysis reveals that monthly premiums for government health insurance would have been significantly higher without these subsidies. In states like Mississippi and West Virginia, enrollees could have seen their average monthly premiums skyrocket by over 1,000%.

Calculating the average costs of ACA plans using public records from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ 2025 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period, SmartAsset’s analysis serves as a close approximation of the potential increase in costs for ACA coverage next year. However, the exact price hikes individuals may experience will vary based on factors such as their insurance plan, age, household income, health status, and location.

The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates that if the tax credits expire, annual out-of-pocket premium costs for the 22 million ACA enrollees relying on subsidies could increase by an average of 114%. Despite efforts by Democratic lawmakers to extend the tax credits, there is currently insufficient support in the Republican-led Congress. The House recently passed a health care bill that excludes an extension of the tax credits, raising concerns about the future affordability of healthcare for many Americans.

If Congress fails to address the tax credit issue, some enrollees may qualify for reduced subsidies or lose eligibility altogether, according to KFF. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that approximately 4 million people could drop their health insurance if the subsidies expire, leading to higher costs for those with other types of health insurance as hospitals may need to provide more uncompensated care for the uninsured.

The potential consequences of the expiration of ACA subsidies are significant, with experts warning of increased financial strain on individuals and the healthcare system as a whole. As we await further developments in Congress early next year, it is crucial for policymakers to find a solution that ensures continued access to affordable health insurance for all Americans.