How US investors should think about tariffs as Trump braces for a fresh round of haggling

Tariffs and Their Impact on Stock Forecasts

When it comes to the 2026 stock forecast, tariffs have been a key topic that has rattled investors. However, they were not a factor in my predictions. The “four e’s” – expectations, exemptions, evasion, and enforceability – play a crucial role in ensuring that the impact of President Trump’s levies is more about economic bark than bite.

While tariffs are generally considered bad, especially for the country imposing them, the recent tariff announcements by Trump have caused some concern. The new global trade taxes and threats of increased tariffs on various countries have created uncertainty. However, the market has already factored in these expectations, leading to a more stable outlook.

Global trade saw growth in 2025, even in the face of tariffs. Exemptions played a significant role in mitigating the impact of tariffs, with many products being exempt from the new levies. Evasion tactics, such as transshipping, have also been used to bypass tariffs and maintain trade flows.

Enforcement of tariffs has been a challenge, with limited resources available to monitor and implement them effectively. This has led to lower actual tariff rates than initially anticipated. Deal-making has also helped to offset the negative effects of tariffs, with new agreements being negotiated to ease trade tensions.

Overall, the impact of tariffs on the global economy has been less severe than feared, thanks to the “four e’s” and strategic deal-making. The market has already adjusted to the new reality of tariffs, and investors should focus on other factors when making investment decisions.

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a bestselling author, and a regular columnist in multiple countries worldwide.