Is Bitcoin Bottom Near? BTC Approaches ‘Death Cross’ as Market Tests Key Historical Pattern

Glassnode data has revealed that bitcoin is on the verge of experiencing a “death cross,” a term used in technical analysis to signal a potential bearish trend. The 50-day moving average for bitcoin, currently at $110,669, is close to crossing below the 200-day moving average at $110,459, which could trigger the death cross. This crossover is typically seen as a bearish signal as it indicates weakening short-term momentum compared to the longer trend.

Despite the negative connotations associated with the death cross, there is a catch that could potentially turn this signal into a positive one. Bitcoin has seen a 25% decline from its October all-time high of around $126,000, with the correction lasting for approximately 41 days. Interestingly, this would mark the fourth occurrence of the death cross since the cycle began in 2023, and each previous instance has coincided with major local bottoms.

For instance, in September 2023, bitcoin hit a bottom near $25,000, while in August 2024, it found support around $49,000 during the yen carry trade unwind. In April 2025, amid uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC bottomed below $75,000. In each of these instances, the market reached its low just before the death cross formation, raising the possibility of a similar pattern emerging once again.

Comparing the current drawdown to the April correction, where bitcoin dropped below $75,000, the current correction appears to be less severe. The April correction was both deeper and longer, with bitcoin falling approximately 30% from its January peak near $109,000 and spending around 79 days trending lower before bottoming out in early April. With the current selloff standing at 25% and lasting 41 days, there may still be room for further downside.

However, the broader market environment now includes the end of the United States government shutdown on Nov. 12. A comparable scenario occurred during the 2019 shutdown, where bitcoin dropped more than 9% five days after the government reopened on Jan. 25, 2019. It took roughly two weeks for bitcoin to recover after this event.

In the current context, bitcoin has already experienced a 10% drop since the reopening, prompting speculation about whether history will repeat itself. As we wait to see how events unfold, it remains crucial to monitor the evolving market dynamics and how they may influence bitcoin’s price movement in the coming days.