Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading
Kalshi has emerged as a frontrunner in the prediction market industry, outpacing competitors like Polymarket in terms of trading volume. Data from Dune Analytics shows that from September 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for a staggering 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, while Polymarket trailed behind at 37%. Kalshi’s weekly trading pace exceeded $500 million, with an average open interest of approximately $189 million.
On the other hand, Polymarket reported a trading volume of $430 million and an average open interest of $164 million. The difference in open interest-to-volume ratio between the two platforms indicates that while Polymarket’s users tend to hold positions for longer periods, Kalshi users engage in more frequent trading activities.
Despite Kalshi’s dominance in trading volume, Polymarket is making significant strides in the U.S. market. The platform recently acquired QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, allowing it to re-enter the U.S. market. Additionally, Polymarket has collaborated with social investing platform Stocktwits to launch earnings-based markets. These markets enable stockholders to hedge earnings risk and provide analysts with real-time market sentiment data.
Overall, Kalshi’s strong performance in the prediction market sector reflects its growing popularity among traders, while Polymarket’s expansion efforts in the U.S. demonstrate its commitment to capturing a larger market share. As the competition between these platforms intensifies, it will be interesting to see how they continue to innovate and adapt to meet the evolving needs of users in the prediction market space. Bullish Group, majority owned by Block.one, has a significant interest in various blockchain and digital asset businesses, with substantial holdings in assets like bitcoin. CoinDesk, as an independent subsidiary, operates with an editorial committee chaired by a former editor-in-chief of The Wall Street Journal to uphold journalistic integrity.
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