Key BTC price levels to watch as downtrend pressure builds
Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline to $86,000 as CME futures opened on Sunday, signaling a downtrend in the market. Although the price has slightly recovered, there is still a pricing gap reaching up to $89,265, which could potentially be revisited in the future.
The cryptocurrency hit an all-time high on Oct. 6, 111 days ago, and has since dropped by approximately 30% from that peak. If Bitcoin falls below $80,000, it may revisit levels seen in April 2025 when it traded as low as $76,000 during a selloff related to President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
Currently, the market is being supported by the 100-week moving average, which acts as a long-term structural support level. Despite dropping below the 50-day moving average of $90,000, Bitcoin has managed to hold above the 100-week moving average near $87,145 since hitting a local bottom at $80,000 on Nov. 21.
In terms of support zones, the Difficulty Regression Model suggests a support level around $89,300, indicating that Bitcoin may gravitate towards or trade below its production cost during bear markets. Additionally, the aggregate cost basis of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund buyers is at $84,099, serving as a strong support level for several months. Onchain data also shows the average exchange withdrawal price for 2024 buyers at $82,713.
Lastly, the True Market Mean Price, calculated using Investor Cap divided by Active Supply, is hovering slightly above $80,000, aligning closely with the November low and suggesting a potential mean-reversion level.
Overall, Bitcoin’s price movements and key support levels indicate a bearish sentiment in the market, with potential levels to watch for in the coming days and weeks.
