Miran says he doesn’t see tariffs causing inflation, putting him in minority on Fed committee

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran recently made a statement regarding President Donald Trump’s tariffs and their potential impact on the U.S. economy. Miran expressed his belief that the tariffs would not lead to inflation in the economy, going against the concerns of many others.

In an interview on CNBC’s “Money Movers,” Miran stated, “I’m clearly in the minority in not being concerned about inflation from tariffs. But that was also true in 2018-2019, and I think I probably could take a little victory lap about that.” He emphasized that while there may be relative price changes due to tariffs, it is not necessarily inflation that would require a response from monetary policy.

Miran’s comments came after he was the sole dissenter in the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision to reduce the benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter-point. He had called for a larger half-point reduction, citing his belief that tariffs were not causing significant inflation in the economy.

The Fed governor pointed to data showing no material inflation from tariffs, as evidenced by the lack of difference in inflation rates between import-intensive core goods and overall core goods. He also noted that there was no discernible trend difference between U.S. core goods inflation and that in other countries.

Despite concerns about inflation running above the Fed’s 2% target, Miran remains optimistic about future economic growth. He expects growth to strengthen in the second half of the year, attributing the weaker growth in the first half to uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade and tax policies. He also mentioned that Trump’s immigration policies could have a disinflationary effect on the economy.

Miran’s views on tariffs and inflation are significant as he was recently confirmed to the Fed Board of Governors. He was appointed by President Trump to fill a vacant seat on the board and is set to serve until January 2026. Despite his new role, Miran has committed to taking an unpaid leave of absence from his position as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors to fulfill his duties on the board.

In conclusion, Miran’s stance on tariffs and inflation provides valuable insights into the current economic landscape. His unique perspective challenges conventional wisdom and highlights the complexities of economic policy in a globalized world.