Most CEOs aren’t expecting a recession anytime soon, survey finds

CEOs across the country are feeling more optimistic about the state of the U.S. economy, with a recent survey showing that the majority do not anticipate a recession in the near future. According to a poll conducted by Chief Executive in June, only 28% of the 277 business leaders surveyed expect a recession, a significant decrease from the 46% reported in May. This positive outlook comes after a period of uncertainty, with 62% of CEOs expressing concerns about a downturn following President Trump’s announcement of tariffs in April.

Recessions, characterized by rising unemployment and a decline in economic activity across various sectors, are notoriously difficult to predict. Since 1929, the U.S. has experienced 14 recessionary periods, with the most recent lasting two months from February to April 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite ongoing economic challenges, CEOs remain hopeful that the Trump administration will negotiate trade deals to offset the impact of tariffs.

Michael Araten, CEO of Rodon Group, a plastics injection molding company, expressed optimism about the future, stating, “Business conditions are likely to improve as the trade war calms down and interest rates are reduced.”

The survey also revealed that 36% of CEOs anticipate mild economic growth this year, a significant increase from 25% in May, while 6% are optimistic about strong growth. Recent data on the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 0.3% annual decrease, raising concerns about a potential recession or “stagflation” – a period of slow economic growth coupled with inflation.

However, recent indicators such as monthly job growth, consumer spending, and industrial production suggest that the economy is holding steady, with minimal signs of an impending recession. The upcoming release of the Department of Labor’s report on prices across the U.S. will provide further insight into the economic landscape.