No recession in 2026 but some sectors are challenged
The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, expressed confidence in the economy and dismissed concerns of a recession in 2026. In an interview on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” Bessent highlighted the positive impact of the Trump administration’s economic policies on trade and taxes, predicting a strong and noninflationary growth economy in the coming year.
Bessent pointed out that the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, a significant part of the GOP’s spending package, is still being implemented and will have a positive impact on the economy. This legislation includes making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent, providing a senior “bonus” to offset Social Security taxes, and offering tax breaks for tip income, overtime pay, and auto loans. Additionally, Bessent mentioned that healthcare costs are expected to become more affordable, with further announcements from the Trump administration anticipated in the coming week.
Despite overall optimism, Bessent acknowledged challenges in certain sectors of the economy, such as housing and interest-rate-sensitive industries. He attributed inflation in the services economy to lower energy prices, which he believed would eventually lead to a decrease in prices.
Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, also noted that economic data for the fourth quarter might reflect weakness due to the government shutdown earlier in the year, the longest in U.S. history.
A recent NBC News poll revealed that around two-thirds of registered voters feel that the Trump administration has not fully addressed economic concerns and the cost of living. Furthermore, JPMorgan’s Cost of Living Survey indicated that Americans’ views on the economy are closely tied to their income level, with high-income respondents expressing more confidence compared to low-income consumers.
Overall, Bessent’s optimistic outlook for 2026, combined with ongoing economic policies and potential improvements in healthcare affordability, suggest a positive trajectory for the U.S. economy in the year ahead.
