Oil prices are falling — gas prices aren’t. Here’s why.

Gas prices in the United States are expected to remain high for the next few weeks, even if crude oil prices stabilize, according to GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan. The global crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations on Monday, initially soaring to nearly $120 a barrel before dropping following President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war with Iran may soon come to an end.

Despite Brent crude oil prices declining by about 13% on Tuesday to $85 a barrel, the national average gas price rose to $3.54 per gallon, representing a 6-cent increase from the previous day as reported by AAA. Since the onset of the war, gas prices have surged by more than 50 cents per gallon, with the average price reaching $2.98 per gallon on February 27, just before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.

According to De Haan, motorists should brace for higher gas prices in the coming weeks. Even if crude oil prices continue to decrease, it is unlikely that gas prices will revert to pre-war levels due to seasonal factors that contribute to increased fuel costs. Factors such as rising fuel demand as the weather warms up and the transition to more expensive summer-blend gasoline, which takes longer to produce and includes additives to reduce evaporation during warmer months, are expected to keep prices elevated.

During the summer months, gas stations are mandated to sell the summer blend from June 1 to September 15 each year, leading consumers to pay approximately 15 cents more per gallon compared to other seasons. The ongoing volatility in oil prices, with Brent crude currently sitting 20% higher than pre-war levels, and the uncertainty surrounding the security risks in the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through, are likely to keep petroleum prices elevated.

President Trump’s recent comments indicating a potential resolution to the conflict with Iran have provided some relief to the markets. However, Iran’s foreign minister has asserted the country’s readiness to continue attacks for as long as necessary while ruling out talks with the U.S. The situation remains fluid, with the market eagerly awaiting clarity on the future of the conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to alleviate supply disruptions and stabilize prices.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, motorists in the U.S. should anticipate sustained high gas prices in the weeks ahead. The roller coaster of oil prices and the ongoing tensions in the Middle East will likely keep gas prices elevated, underscoring the need for consumers to monitor developments closely and adjust their budgets accordingly.