OPEC+ to further speed up oil output hikes, sources say

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OPEC+ to Increase Oil Output by 2.2 Million Barrels Per Day by November

OPEC+ is set to accelerate oil output hikes, potentially adding 2.2 million barrels per day to the market by November, according to five sources within the organization. This move comes as Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+, aims to reprimand members who have exceeded their production quotas.

In April, OPEC+ surprised oil markets by agreeing to a larger-than-expected output increase for May despite weak prices and slowing demand. This decision was primarily made to penalize Iraq and Kazakhstan for their poor compliance with production quotas, as Saudi Arabia signaled its reluctance to continue propping up the market.

The shift in Saudi policy indicates a desire to expand market share, a significant change after years of balancing the market through substantial output cuts. OPEC+ has been cutting output by nearly 5 million barrels per day or 5% of global demand, with many cuts scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.

President Trump’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia to discuss arms deals and a nuclear agreement adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Trump has been urging OPEC+ to increase oil production to alleviate rising gasoline prices resulting from inflation pressures, including those from his tariff disputes.

The group recently agreed to accelerate the phase-out of voluntary cuts by June, with additional output hikes planned for the coming months. However, concerns about compliance and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth continue to weigh on oil prices.

Despite warnings from Saudi Arabia regarding compliance, OPEC+ is expected to approve further output increases if certain members fail to adhere to production quotas. Kazakhstan, in particular, has openly prioritized its national interests over those of the OPEC+ group, leading to tensions within the organization.

Oil prices hit a four-year low in April due to accelerated OPEC+ hikes and concerns about a global economic slowdown fueled by President Trump’s tariff policies. Analysts predict that oil prices will remain under pressure until compliance within OPEC+ improves.