Prediction markets have new favorite for Fed chair—Christopher Waller
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is gaining momentum as the potential next chairman of the Federal Reserve, with his odds surpassing 50% for the first time on prediction market Kalshi. This surge in Waller’s probability came after reports from Bloomberg News indicated that President Donald Trump’s advisors favor Waller for his willingness to adjust monetary policy based on forecasting rather than relying solely on current data. While Waller has met with Trump’s team regarding the Fed chief role, he has not yet had a meeting with the president himself.
Waller’s chances on Kalshi have now exceeded those of previous front-runners, former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, whose odds currently stand at 20% and 35% respectively. Trump nominated Waller to the Fed in 2020, and in the most recent Fed decision, Waller publicly dissented with the decision to hold rates steady, along with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Waller criticized the Fed’s wait-and-see approach as “overly cautious.”
According to Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, Waller is seen as an ideal choice for investors due to his recent dovish stance and perceived political independence. Both Hassett and Warsh have advocated for lower interest rates, while current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, has faced criticism from Trump for maintaining elevated rates.
On Polymarket, another popular prediction platform, Waller is also leading as the front-runner with a 35% chance of being named the next Fed chairman. Hassett follows with a 22% chance, while Warsh trails at 11%. Notably, 31% of participants on Polymarket wagered that no announcement would be made by December.
During a recent interview with CNBC, Trump mentioned that he had four candidates in mind for the top Fed slot but seemed to favor both Warsh and Hassett. Trump praised Warsh, saying he believes both “Kevins” are very capable individuals. These comments led to an increase in the odds for Hassett and Warsh on Kalshi, as investors reacted to Trump’s remarks.
Overall, Waller’s increasing chances of becoming the next Fed chairman reflect the shifting dynamics within the Federal Reserve and the potential for a new leader who may take a different approach to monetary policy. Investors and market participants will be closely watching for any developments in the selection process as the decision deadline approaches.
