A rapid and violent sell-off wiped more than $500 billion from crypto markets Friday, triggering forced liquidations, collapsing wrapped tokens, leading to nearly $20 billion in liquidations, and straining exchange infrastructure. This flash crash, described by Bitwise portfolio manager Jonathan Man as possibly the worst liquidation event in crypto history, erased $65 billion in open interest and reset positioning to levels last seen in July.

The violent crash saw Bitcoin drop 13% in a single hour before rebounding, while some tokens saw flash crashes of more than 40%. Since then, the market has been recovering, with the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index now being up 7.7% in the last 24 hours, while still being down some 7.4% from the crash.

On Binance, infrastructure failures caused wrapped assets like wBETH and BNSOL to diverge massively from their underlying prices. wBETH, which is meant to track ether, fell as low as $430 while ETH traded above $3,800. Binance pledged to compensate affected users and has switched to a more stable conversion-based pricing model for wrapped assets.

Stuart Connolly, CIO at Deus X Capital, pointed out that market structure issues including large derivative exchanges liquidating users, uptime issues, and stablecoin and liquid staking assets experiencing price dislocations have all contributed to the current situation. He mentioned that the popular “Perp Dex” narrative has taken a few steps back and that the market needed a reset. He also suggested that if President Trump’s position softens, as it looks like it might, we will see crypto assets higher during Q4 as a result.

The ongoing U.S. government shutdown means markets are still operating in a data vacuum. Amid the risk-off sentiment, gold has kept on rallying, helping tokens backed by the precious metal like PAXG and XAUT near $4,090.

Today, U.S. markets will remain closed, and there are few macro references to lean on. Traders will instead watch how the market reacts as liquidity gets a boost after the weekend. None of the typically used crypto market cycle top indicators have so far been triggered, so it’s important to stay alert.

In terms of upcoming events, CME Group is aiming to launch options on SOL and XRP, subject to regulatory approval on October 13. Additionally, there are governance votes and calls happening, such as the Superfluid DAO voting on a proposal to upgrade contracts for wrapper superTokens and the ENS DAO voting on a proposal to establish reverse records for its core contracts. SANDchain, a zk-powered Ethereum layer-2, is also set to launch on October 14.

The crypto market has seen a rebound on Monday after a sharp weekend leverage flush. The total crypto market cap climbed roughly 5.7% in the past 24 hours, with volume jumping about 26.8%. A total of $19 billion worth of derivatives positions were wiped out over the weekend, with the recovery being tentative so far. The dominance of Bitcoin remains elevated, suggesting that altcoins may still lag as capital piles back into safer large-cap names.

Derivatives positioning in the market has stabilized after a volatile period, with open interest settling at around $26 billion and the 3-month annualized basis rebounding to the 6-7% range. The BTC options market is showing a renewed bullish lean, with increasing demand for bullish exposure and upside protection. Coinglass data shows $620 million in 24-hour liquidations, with ETH, BTC, and SOL leading in terms of notional liquidations.

Binance liquidation heatmap indicates $116,620 as a core liquidation level to monitor, in case of a price rise

Following the recent turmoil in the cryptocurrency market, Binance’s liquidation heatmap has identified $116,620 as a key liquidation level to keep an eye on, especially in the event of a price increase. This level is crucial as it represents a point where leveraged positions may be forced to close due to reaching their liquidation price.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 0.48% from 4 p.m. ET Wednesday at $115,132.15 (24hrs: 3.05%)
• ETH is up 0.97% at $4,166.14 (24hrs: 8.96%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 0.42% at 3,852.77 (24hrs: +6.92%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 98 bps at 2.92%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0012% (-1.367% annualized) on Binance
• DXY is up 0.13% at 99.11
• Gold futures are up 2.37% at $4,095.10
• Silver futures are up 5.08% at $49.65
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.01% at 48,088.80
• Hang Seng closed down 1.52% at 25,889.48
• FTSE is unchanged at 9,428.00
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.68% at 5,568.86
• DJIA closed on Friday down 1.90% at 45,479.60
• S&P 500 closed down 2.71% at 6,552.51
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 3.56% at 22,204.43
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.38% at 29,850.89
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 2.54% at 2,785.96
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 8.9 bps at 4.059%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.35% at 6,684.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 1.88% at 24,856.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.97% at 46,150.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.22% (-0.44%)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03617 (0.11%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,021 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $48.33
• Total Fees: 2.43 BTC / $274,808
• CME Futures Open Interest: 145,105 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 28.6 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 8.06%

Technical Analysis

• Following the largest liquidation event in the industry’s history, major cryptocurrency prices have begun to stabilize, gradually reverting to levels seen the previous week. ETH briefly dipped to $3,400 before rebounding to reclaim the weekly range lows around $4,070.
• Notably, the $3,400 zone aligns with the EMA200 on the daily timeframe, providing a strong technical support. ETH is currently trading near $4,150, just below the daily EMA50.
• Bulls will want to see a weekly close above the $4,070, effectively establishing a swing low and signalling renewed strength in the trend.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $357.01 (-7.75%)
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $132.94 (-11.66%)
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $39.38 (-6.73%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $60.41 (-9.44%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $18.65 (-7.67%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $21.01 (-5.7%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $18.52 (+2.66%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $19.28 (-4.03%)
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $55.34 (-3.87%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $28.5 (-3.94%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $304.79 (-4.84%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $26.8 (-5.37%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $15.31 (-9.65%)
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $6.35 (-7.3%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $2.47 (-2.76%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$4.5 million
• Cumulative net flows: $62.73 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~ 1.36 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flow: -$174.9 million
• Cumulative net flows: $14.92 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~ 6.87 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

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