Seasonal hiring could fall to lowest level since 2009, new analysis finds

The holiday season is fast approaching, but retailers across the U.S. are expected to scale back on their seasonal hiring this year. This shift in strategy comes as a surprise, considering the usual hiring sprees that take place to accommodate the influx of customers during the festive period.

According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, several factors are contributing to the reduced demand for seasonal workers. The heavy costs incurred by companies due to U.S. tariffs on foreign goods, rising inflation rates, and the increasing reliance on technology for operational efficiency are all playing a role in this decision. In fact, retail hiring for the holidays is projected to reach its lowest level since 2009, when the economy was recovering from the global financial crisis.

Andy Challenger, a workplace expert and senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, highlighted the challenges faced by seasonal employers this year. He mentioned that the looming tariffs, inflationary pressures, and the shift towards automation and permanent staff are all influencing the hiring decisions of retailers.

The weaker seasonal hiring forecast comes at a time when the U.S. job market is showing signs of weakness. In August, only 22,000 jobs were added, falling short of economists’ expectations. Additionally, inflation has been on the rise, with the Consumer Price Index increasing by 2.9% in August compared to a year ago.

In the last quarter of 2024, retailers hired just over 543,000 seasonal workers, a 4% decrease from the previous year. Challenger predicts that the number of seasonal hires in the last three months of 2025 will be fewer than 500,000, marking the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years. The lack of seasonal hiring announcements from retailers further suggests a cautious approach to holiday hiring this year.

The impact of tariffs on consumer spending is becoming evident, with recent data showing that consumers are cutting back on purchases of goods that have seen price hikes due to tariffs. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is not only affecting retailers but also impacting consumer behavior heading into the final quarter of the year.

Overall, the holiday season is shaping up to be a challenging period for retailers, with hiring slowing down and consumers showing signs of reduced spending. As companies navigate these challenges, the focus may shift towards doing more with less and finding ways to optimize operations in the face of economic uncertainties.