Selective Coincidences – Econlib

Understanding Coincidences: A Closer Look

After reading Scott Sumner’s insightful post on how people struggle to comprehend coincidences, I couldn’t help but reflect on my own tendency to selectively recognize certain coincidences. This selective recognition often leads us to perceive coincidences as more extraordinary than they actually are.

One common example that I frequently encounter is during our family tradition of playing spades. As I receive my hand of cards, there are moments when I am struck by the seeming improbability of the hand I hold. However, upon closer examination, I remind myself that the odds of receiving any particular combination of 13 cards are equal.

My reaction to certain hands being perceived as more remarkable than others is deeply rooted in the distinctiveness of the hand and its potential impact on the game. Hands that deviate significantly from the norm, either by being exceptionally strong or weak, tend to trigger that sense of awe at the perceived coincidence.

Consider two hypothetical spades hands:

• Hand one: Contains a mix of various suits and card values.
• Hand two: Consists entirely of spades, from Two to Ace.

While both hands have the same probability of being dealt, hand two, with its perfect spades sequence, elicits a stronger reaction due to its striking nature. This highlights how our perception of randomness is influenced by the visual distinctiveness of an event.

Despite the astronomical odds of receiving a specific 13-card hand (approximately 1 in 635 billion), we often overlook these occurrences unless they possess a visually remarkable quality. It is a reminder that highly improbable events occur more frequently than we realize.

Expanding this concept to shuffling a deck of cards, with over 80 unvigintillion possible unique arrangements, each shuffle creates a configuration that is virtually unparalleled in history. Yet, we rarely acknowledge the sheer improbability of these arrangements unless they exhibit a noticeable pattern.

While our instinctual reactions may lead us to perceive certain coincidences as extraordinary, engaging our rational thought processes can help us appreciate the miraculous nature of everyday occurrences. By training our analytical minds to recognize the true probabilities behind seemingly remarkable events, we can develop a deeper understanding of the world around us.