Strait of Hormuz still seeing significantly lower traffic despite Iran war ceasefire
Following the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, only about a dozen ships passed through the crucial waterway of the Strait of Hormuz in the first two days, a significant decrease from the normal traffic levels seen before the war. This strait is responsible for facilitating the transit of approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply.
As per the terms of the agreement announced by President Trump, Iran was expected to allow vessels to navigate through the strait. However, early reports from an Iranian news agency associated with the military suggested that traffic through the waterway would be suspended in response to Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt refuted Iran’s claim, stating that the Lebanon conflict was not part of the ceasefire agreement. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged a “legitimate misunderstanding” regarding the terms of the ceasefire.
Despite the initial disruptions, there has been an uptick in traffic through the strait in the following days. White House press secretary Leavitt emphasized the importance of promptly reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe and efficient maritime transit.
According to data from Marine Traffic, only 12 ships traversed the strait on Wednesday and Thursday, a stark contrast to the average daily traffic of 129 vessels observed before the onset of the war. Of the ships that passed through during the ceasefire period, three were oil or chemical tankers, all of which were subject to U.S. sanctions for previous dealings involving Iranian oil. The remaining vessels were cargo ships.
The slowdown in maritime traffic has significantly impacted global oil shipments, with a substantial reduction in the volume of seaborne crude passing through the strait. Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, noted that the current flow of oil through the waterway has drastically decreased, posing challenges to the global oil market.
Since the conflict erupted on February 28, the number of ships transiting through the strait has fluctuated, with an average of 10 ships passing through daily as of Thursday. Approximately 58% of the vessels navigating through the strait have been oil, chemical, or gas tankers.
Despite the complexities of tracking maritime traffic, efforts are being made to monitor and analyze the movement of ships through the strait. Some vessels employ tactics such as disabling or spoofing their AIS transponders, which transmit location data, adding further intricacies to real-time tracking.
