Supreme Court likely to kill Trump tariffs: prediction markets
Traders are losing confidence in President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs after the Supreme Court expressed doubts about the legality of the administration’s broad trade powers. Contracts on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a significant drop in odds that the court will uphold Trump’s tariffs, with traders now estimating only a 30% chance of a favorable ruling.
During Wednesday’s hearing, conservative justices raised concerns about the administration’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs on imports, questioning Solicitor General D. John Sauer on the legal justification for the policy. Critics argue that Trump’s tariffs infringe on Congress’s authority to levy taxes, leading lower federal courts to rule against the president’s actions.
The shift in market sentiment reflects traders’ interpretation of the justices’ skepticism during the hearing. Prediction markets, where traders can bet on real-world events, often react quickly to signals from high-profile court cases. In this case, the movement of the contracts indicates a growing belief that the Supreme Court may strike down Trump’s trade agenda.
It is important to note that the Supreme Court did not issue a ruling on Wednesday, and the timing of a decision remains uncertain. However, the market reaction underscores the potential challenges facing Trump’s trade policies and the broader implications for the administration’s authority in setting tariffs. As the case unfolds, traders will continue to monitor the court’s deliberations and adjust their predictions accordingly.
