The government is belatedly releasing inflation data on Friday. Here’s what economists are expecting.

The delayed inflation report released on Friday revealed concerning data about the direction of U.S. prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September rising at its fastest pace in 16 months. Economists had projected a 3.1% increase in the CPI on an annual basis, marking the highest rate since May of 2024. The CPI measures changes in prices for a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by consumers.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the September CPI report on Friday, nine days later than originally scheduled due to the U.S. government shutdown. Most federal economic data releases were suspended during the stalemate, but an exception was made for the September CPI data as it is crucial for determining the Social Security Administration’s annual cost-of-living adjustment for beneficiaries.

Inflation has been on the rise this year, moving further away from the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% annually. The Trump administration’s tariffs have played a role in this increase, with U.S. companies passing on up to 55% of import taxes to consumers in the form of higher prices. This has contributed to the acceleration of inflation across both goods and services.

While prices are rising more slowly than during the peak growth in June of 2022, when the CPI reached a 40-year high of 9.1%, the recent uptick in inflation has led to concerns among Americans about the state of the economy. A CBS News poll found that 59% of respondents believe the economy is worsening, with two-thirds noticing price increases in recent weeks.

The Social Security Administration is also expected to announce its annual cost-of-living adjustment on Friday, based on the inflation rate from July to September. A 2.7% increase in benefits is anticipated, slightly higher than the 2.5% adjustment beneficiaries received in 2025. This adjustment aims to ensure that Social Security recipients maintain their purchasing power as prices rise.

Despite the recent inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve and most economists anticipate a decrease in inflation next year. The Fed’s forecast suggests that the Personal Consumption Expenditures, a key measure of inflation, will show a 3% annual increase in 2025, dropping to 2.6% in the following year. While the impact of tariffs on inflation has been less severe than expected, there are still concerns about potential future price increases.

In conclusion, the recent uptick in inflation has raised concerns about the economy, with implications for Social Security beneficiaries and consumers. While efforts are being made to mitigate the impact of rising prices, there is a possibility of continued inflationary pressures in the future. It is important to monitor these trends closely to understand the broader economic implications.