The price you pay for an Obamacare plan could surge next year

Miami — Josefina Muralles is a hardworking mother who goes above and beyond to take care of her family. Working a part-time overnight shift as a receptionist at a Miami Beach condominium, she dedicates her days to caring for her three kids, her aging mother, and her disabled brother, Rodrigo Muralles. Rodrigo, who has epilepsy and became paralyzed after contracting COVID-19 in 2020, relies on Josefina and her mother for daily care.

Despite her husband working full-time, the Muralles household income hovers just above the federal poverty line. This income level makes them ineligible for Florida’s Medicaid program but qualifies them for subsidized health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace, also known as Obamacare.

However, the future looks uncertain for the Muralles family as they face the possibility of not being able to afford their health insurance coverage next year. The enhanced subsidies that have helped reduce their premiums may expire at the end of the year, leading to a significant increase in their monthly costs.

According to estimates from KFF, a health information nonprofit, without the enhanced subsidies, Affordable Care Act insurance premiums could rise by more than 75% on average. States like Florida and Texas, with a high number of marketplace enrollees, would be particularly impacted. Some congressional districts in South Florida have more Obamacare enrollees than entire states.

For low-income enrollees like the Muralles couple, the potential premium increases pose a significant financial burden. Middle-income enrollees earning more than four times the federal poverty line would no longer qualify for subsidies, affecting older individuals, self-employed workers, and those living in rural areas disproportionately.

Julio Fuentes, president of the Florida State Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, emphasized the importance of Obamacare for small business owners who rely on it for health coverage. The potential loss of enhanced subsidies could have far-reaching consequences, leading to millions of Americans being uninsured by 2034.

The impact of losing the enhanced subsidies would be particularly severe for Hispanic and Black populations, as highlighted in a study by the Urban Institute. With over 5 million Hispanics enrolled in the ACA marketplace, the potential consequences of the subsidy expiration are concerning.

Enrollment in the marketplace has surged in states won by President Trump in 2024, indicating a growing base of support for the program. However, the future of the enhanced subsidies remains uncertain, with Democrats pushing for an extension while Republicans focus on tax cuts.

Lauren Aronson, executive director of Keep Americans Covered, stressed the importance of extending the enhanced tax credits to ensure continued coverage for millions of Americans. The potential consequences of losing these subsidies could lead to individuals turning to alternative, less comprehensive coverage options.

While the debate over the future of the enhanced subsidies continues, the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association urges Congress to act swiftly to avoid confusion during open enrollment. Insurers are preparing for potential changes in rates, with consumers set to receive renewal notices with their 2026 premiums by October.

For families like the Muralles’, the outcome of this debate holds significant implications for their access to affordable health insurance. As they navigate the challenges of caring for a disabled family member, the decision on the fate of the enhanced subsidies will directly impact their ability to maintain coverage and ensure their well-being.

It remains to be seen whether Congress will prioritize extending the enhanced subsidies to provide much-needed support for families like the Muralles’, who rely on Obamacare for essential health coverage.

KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF — the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism.