The September jobs report is finally coming out Thursday. What it may show

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the September nonfarm payrolls number after a shutdown-induced blackout on official jobs data. This release, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, is anticipated to show a gain of 50,000 jobs in the public and private sectors, indicating a soft labor market despite the improvement from the initial 22,000 jobs reported in August.

While this report will offer a retrospective view, it will provide valuable insights for investors, economists, and Federal Reserve officials who have been relying on alternative data sources during the recent government shutdown. This will be the first BLS jobs report since the August release, providing some clarity on the state of the labor market.

Economists like Joseph Brusuelas anticipate a slightly brighter outlook in the upcoming report, suggesting that the labor market is holding steady, mirroring the overall economy. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%, with average hourly earnings showing a 0.3% increase for the month and a 3.7% rise from a year ago, in line with August figures.

However, policymakers may find limited use in September’s data as they navigate through uncertain economic conditions. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell likened the current situation to “driving in the fog,” emphasizing the need for caution in predicting further interest rate cuts.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has adjusted its release dates for upcoming data points, with October’s jobs report merged with November’s and set for release on December 16. The prolonged shutdown has created challenges in collecting household data, leading to delays in key economic indicators.

Despite the uncertainty, various data sources such as private payrolls from ADP and layoff announcements from job placement firms are offering some insights into the labor market. Fed Governor Christopher Waller dismissed concerns about data availability, stating that policymakers can make informed decisions using existing data.

Goldman Sachs predicts a higher job creation number of 80,000 for September but anticipates a decline of 50,000 in October due to various factors, including the end of a government program and shutdown-related furloughs. Both Brusuelas and Goldman economists expect revisions for July and August to show higher job counts than previously reported.

In conclusion, the upcoming jobs report will shed light on the state of the labor market, providing valuable information for policymakers and investors amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.