Trump’s Economy at One Year: Food Prices, Stock Market and More
President Trump campaigned in 2024 on promises to “end inflation,” bring back manufacturing jobs and deliver an economic boom. A year after he returned to the White House, he has yet to deliver on those pledges. Still, there has been progress in some areas, and the economy has proved surprisingly resilient.
Here are eight of the promises Mr. Trump made as a candidate, and where things stand after his first year back in office.
Food Prices
Prices are down for a few specific grocery categories, like eggs, but are up sharply in others, like beef. Overall, food inflation has slowed significantly since peaking in 2022, but it has actually picked up somewhat since Mr. Trump returned to office — December saw the biggest one-month increase in grocery prices since 2022.
Mr. Trump often went even further on the campaign trail, promising to “bring down the prices of all goods.” Economists say that was never credible — and, indeed, outright declines in prices, known as deflation, are generally a sign of a deep economic slump. But they say inflation might have cooled more this year if Mr. Trump hadn’t imposed tariffs on a broad range of imported goods.
Gas Prices
Gas prices have fallen under Mr. Trump, though not to the sub-$2 level that he promised on the campaign trail. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.78 in early January, according to the Energy Information Administration, down from just over $3 a year earlier. Gas prices hit a record high of more than $5 a gallon in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but had fallen significantly even before Mr. Trump returned to office.
Energy experts generally say presidents have little control over the price of oil. The major factors driving the recent decline, including robust domestic oil production, were in place long before Mr. Trump returned to office, although his trade policies may also have played a role by leading to lower forecasts for global growth. Still, prices at the pump are the lowest they’ve been in nearly five years.
Electricity Prices
Unlike gasoline, the electricity market is extremely regional, with different parts of the country paying sharply different prices for power. On average, however, residential electricity prices in December were up 6.7 percent from a year earlier, and have risen far more in some areas.
Power prices are being driven in part by rising demand from the data centers used to train and run artificial intelligence models. That has created a political liability for Mr. Trump, whose administration has embraced the A.I. boom. Rising electric bills were a major issue in gubernatorial races last year, and are expected to feature heavily in midterm campaigns this year.
The Auto Industry
U.S. auto production peaked in the mid-1980s and has fallen steadily since then. That decline showed little sign of reversing during Mr. Trump’s first year back in office. Globally, U.S. carmakers have lost ground to foreign competitors, particularly Chinese companies specializing in affordable electric vehicles. Employment in the automaking sector has fallen by about 28,000 jobs in the past year.
Manufacturing Jobs
Manufacturing employment was roughly flat in Mr. Trump’s first few months back in the White House, but has now fallen for eight straight months. Wage growth for rank-and-file factory workers also slowed in 2025.
Mr. Trump’s supporters say it will take time for his trade policies to translate into factory jobs. But critics note that investment in factory construction, which should respond more quickly to policy changes, has also fallen.
Stock Market
Mr. Trump’s first year was a wild one for the stock market. At one point last spring, the S&P 500 closed down nearly 18 percent from its peak, narrowly avoiding the 20 percent drop that is the conventional definition of a bear market. In spite of a few nervous moments, stocks closed out 2025 with a 16 percent increase, marking a successful year. Some of the market fluctuations were directly linked to Mr. Trump’s policies, such as the sharp decline following the announcement of tariffs on U.S. trading partners, which was quickly reversed when many of those tariffs were rolled back.
However, the primary driver behind the market growth was investor confidence in artificial intelligence. Companies in the A.I. sector experienced significant stock price increases, while other sectors lagged behind. This growing concentration has raised concerns that the bull market could be at risk if the A.I. boom turns out to be a bubble.
On the tariff front, the U.S. Treasury collected a record $264 billion in tariff revenue in 2025, more than triple the amount from the previous year. The Congressional Budget Office projected that tariffs would generate about $2.5 trillion in revenue by 2035, although a legal challenge could impact some duties. Despite the tariff revenue, the national debt is expected to continue growing due to the tax cuts signed into law by Mr. Trump, which are estimated to add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over a decade.
Mr. Trump’s promise to reduce the trade deficit through tariffs did not initially yield the desired results, as the deficit increased when companies rushed to import goods ahead of the tariffs. However, imports declined significantly later in the year as companies adjusted to the new trade policies. There is uncertainty about whether companies will shift production back to the U.S., and the trade deficit could widen again once inventories are depleted.
The U.S.-China trade deficit peaked during Mr. Trump’s first term but has since decreased as both his and the Biden administrations imposed tariffs and restrictions on trade with China. Some Chinese companies have found ways to circumvent U.S. duties by routing trade through other countries, making it challenging to determine the exact impact on imports from China. text to make it more engaging:
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