Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished

Bitcoin’s correlation with Gold has been a topic of interest, especially during market downturns. While the traditional view measures Bitcoin’s performance against the USD, looking at it through the lens of Gold provides a more comprehensive perspective of the current market cycle. By examining Bitcoin’s purchasing power against comparable assets like Gold, we can identify potential support levels and gauge where the bear market cycle may be heading.

The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price has raised concerns about a potential bear market. Breaking below the 350-day moving average and the significant psychological barrier of $100,000 marked the entry into bear market territory, with an immediate 20% decline following. Trading below The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated the start of a bear cycle, highlighting the importance of this level in analyzing Bitcoin’s price action.

When comparing Bitcoin’s performance against Gold instead of the USD, a different narrative emerges. Bitcoin peaked in December 2024 and has since declined over 50% from that level, while the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, signaling a divergence in the two charts. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for longer than perceived when measured in Gold.

Historical data on Bitcoin bear cycles measured in Gold reveals patterns that indicate the current pullback may be approaching critical support zones. Previous bear cycles have seen significant drawdowns ranging from 76% to 86%, lasting between 364 to 406 days. Currently, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold, signaling a potential continuation of the bear market cycle.

By utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles, a clearer picture of potential support levels emerges. The alignment of bear market bottoms with key Fibonacci levels in previous cycles provides insights into where Bitcoin’s price may bottom. Confluence zones suggest that Bitcoin could find support in the $67,000 to $80,000 range, based on historical patterns.

In conclusion, the Bitcoin bear market may be 90% complete already, according to analysis when measured against Gold and converted back into USD terms. While this analysis is theoretical and may not play out with perfect precision, the convergence of data points across different valuation frameworks suggests that the bear market may be approaching its conclusion sooner than expected. For more insights and analysis, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com and subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube.