You can bet on the words that will be said on Apple’s earnings call

Wall Street is eagerly awaiting Apple’s third-quarter results after the bell, with users on prediction platform Kalshi speculating on what will be discussed on the tech giant’s upcoming earnings call.

By Thursday afternoon, Kalshi was indicating a high probability, around 90%, that Apple would mention words like “China” and “Tariff” during the call. Additionally, the mention of “Severance” was being priced in at over 50%, with trading volumes exceeding $48,000.

Apple has been under pressure to increase domestic manufacturing in recent months. President Donald Trump previously mentioned that Apple would face tariffs of 25% or more for iPhones not produced in the United States. To mitigate this, Apple announced plans to open a manufacturing academy in downtown Detroit, offering workshops on manufacturing and artificial intelligence to small and medium-sized businesses.

Analysts have warned that U.S.-made iPhones could significantly increase the device’s cost, with estimates ranging from $1,500 to $3,500. While Apple primarily manufactures its iPhones in China, it has expanded production to India amid uncertainties surrounding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Recent reports indicate that India has surpassed China in smartphone exports during the second quarter.

Barclays analyst Tim Long predicts that iPhones may face challenges due to a tough macroeconomic environment, lack of new products, and market share losses in China. He also noted that the majority of iPhones sold in the U.S. are expected to originate from India for the June quarter.

In addition to discussions on China tariffs, Kalshi users are anticipating conversations about Apple TV+ series “Severance,” which recently saw a surge in popularity with the premiere of its second season. The show was renewed for a third season shortly after the season two finale aired in March.

Other entertainment industry topics like “Formula 1/F1” are also on users’ radar, with an 88% chance of being mentioned. “F1: The Movie” generated over $293 million globally shortly after its release, becoming Apple’s highest-grossing theatrical film.

Apple’s shares were slightly down in afternoon trading on Thursday, with a year-to-date decline of nearly 17%, contrasting with the S&P 500’s increase of over 8% in the same period. The company’s third-quarter earnings call is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, where analysts expect a single-digit percentage increase in earnings and revenue compared to the prior-year period.

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