2026 NL Cy Young odds, prediction: Will Paul Skenes repeat?

The race for the NL Cy Young award is heating up, with Paul Skenes leading the pack as the favorite according to oddsmakers. Heading into his third MLB season, Skenes is the frontrunner with a +220 price at BetMGM, giving him a 31.3 percent implied probability of winning the prestigious award. His dominance in his first two seasons in the league, winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2024 and following it up with a unanimous NL Cy Young win in 2025, has solidified his status as a top contender.

Last year, Skenes was virtually uncontested for the award, posting a stellar 1.97 ERA in 32 starts and 187 ⅔ innings with 216 strikeouts. He became the first unanimous winner since Sandy Alcántara in 2022 and projected strong metrics in xwOBA and xERA, finishing tied for eighth overall in WAR at 6.5.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the third-place finisher in NL Cy Young voting last season, is the second favorite with +550 odds. Yamamoto’s stock rose after an impressive postseason performance, going 5-1 with a 1.45 ERA in 37 ⅓ innings and earning World Series MVP honors for the Dodgers.

Christopher Sanchez follows closely behind with odds of 7/1 after a strong showing last season, where he received all 30 second-place votes. The Phillies’ left-handed pitcher is known for his commanding sinker and changeup and excels at inducing groundballs, ranking within Statcast’s top four percentile in 2025.

Other notable contenders include 2024 NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale at 11/1 and Giants’ strikeout artist Logan Webb at 17/1. Webb, in particular, has been a consistent top performer in Cy Young voting for the past three seasons and led the league in both innings pitched and strikeouts last year.

While Skenes remains the favorite, Webb could be a valuable investment at his current odds. With a strong track record and a repertoire that limits home runs and generates groundballs, Webb has the potential to make a serious run for the award. Considering the Giants’ win total projection for the upcoming season, Webb’s performance could be a key factor in their success, further boosting his Cy Young candidacy.

In conclusion, while Skenes is the frontrunner, Webb presents an enticing option for those seeking value in their Cy Young bets. With his consistent performance and potential for a breakout season, Webb could be a dark horse candidate to watch out for in the NL Cy Young race.

(Source: New York Post)