Will Trump Pardon FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried? Polymarket Bets Say Maybe
Speculation is mounting that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) could be the next candidate for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump, following the recent clemency granted to Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ). While SBF’s legal circumstances differ significantly from CZ’s, several factors are contributing to renewed discussions about the possibility of his early release.
Polymarket, a crypto betting platform, has witnessed a surge in activity surrounding SBF’s chances of receiving a presidential pardon. Following CZ’s pardon, SBF’s odds rose from 5.6% to approximately 12% within a mere 12 hours, with over $6.5 million wagered on the market. An individual even placed a staggering $302,090 bet on SBF, who has been convicted of crypto fraud.
Another Polymarket market, questioning whether SBF will be released from custody in 2025, also experienced significant movement, climbing from 4.3% to 19.1% before settling around 15.5%. Despite SBF filing an appeal to reduce his 25-year sentence, legal experts suggest that any developments are unlikely to occur before the year’s end, making a presidential pardon the most plausible route for his early release.
When comparing CZ and SBF, it becomes evident that the scale and nature of their offenses vary significantly. CZ violated U.S. Anti-Money Laundering laws by allowing illicit funds to flow through Binance, resulting in a four-month sentence primarily related to compliance issues. On the other hand, SBF was convicted of fraud, conspiracy to commit money laundering, and misappropriating billions in customer funds, leading to a 25-year prison sentence.
Crypto lawyer Jake Chervinsky expressed disbelief at the notion of Trump pardoning SBF, citing SBF’s previous status as a Democratic mega-donor and his unfavorable reputation in Washington. Sasha Hodder, founder of Hodder Law, highlighted that CZ’s infractions were compliance-related and pale in comparison to SBF’s and Do Kwon’s.
Trump himself characterized CZ’s actions as “not even a crime” and claimed that he was unfairly targeted by the Biden administration. CZ’s pardon may have been influenced by his unwavering support for the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial crypto platform, whereas SBF lacks comparable political connections, casting uncertainty on his path to a pardon despite the betting market’s fervor.
Recent reports suggest that SBF is striving to align himself with conservative figures, making appearances on conservative media platforms and asserting claims of political persecution. Furthermore, his parents have purportedly enlisted allies in Trump’s inner circle to advocate for his release. While these efforts indicate a strategic push for a pardon, experts remain doubtful about the likelihood of success.
Despite the heightened activity in the betting markets and public speculation following CZ’s pardon, SBF’s situation remains intricate. Legal experts concur that without significant political leverage or extraordinary circumstances, a presidential pardon for SBF would be highly improbable. Nevertheless, ongoing endeavors by SBF and his family suggest that the discourse surrounding his potential clemency is far from concluded.
