Will Americans get refunds after Trump’s tariffs were overturned by the Supreme Court?

Businesses are urging the Trump administration to issue tariff refunds following the Supreme Court’s ruling that President Trump unlawfully imposed levies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). However, experts warn that the process of obtaining refunds could face legal and political obstacles, potentially dragging out for several years.

Economists and trade experts predict that the issue will likely be litigated in court, as there is currently no government mechanism in place for businesses to file for or collect tariff refunds. Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, anticipates a lengthy legal battle over the refunds.

The Supreme Court did not specify in its ruling whether businesses that paid billions of dollars in IEEPA tariffs would be reimbursed, leaving the decision to lower courts. During a press conference on Friday, President Trump hinted that the refund process could be prolonged, possibly spanning over years.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that businesses could be owed up to $165 billion in tariff refunds. However, there are no established procedures for businesses to automatically receive refunds for the tariffs they paid, nor is there a portal for companies to apply for reimbursement.

Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow in economics at the Pacific Research Institute, emphasized that processing billions of dollars in tariff refunds would be an unprecedented task for the federal government. He noted that businesses would likely have to navigate a complex process to claim their refunds, with some companies potentially hesitant to seek compensation to avoid upsetting President Trump.

The Supreme Court invalidated country-based tariffs imposed under IEEPA, accounting for approximately 60% of U.S. tariff revenue collected each month. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that it is uncertain whether the federal government is obligated to provide tariff refunds to businesses, stating that the issue is under dispute.

Calls for tariff refunds have come from various groups, with businesses filing over 1,000 claims for refunds with the Court of International Trade. Advocates are urging the White House to promptly issue refunds, emphasizing the financial strain that tariffs have imposed on businesses and consumers.

Following the Supreme Court’s decision, state leaders such as California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker have demanded that the Trump administration compensate households for the tariff costs incurred. It remains to be seen how the administration will address the issue of tariff refunds in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling.