DOJ arrests soldier who made $400,000 betting on Maduro’s removal: Sources

Federal authorities have made a shocking arrest of a special forces soldier who played a role in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. This soldier allegedly pocketed over $400,000 by placing bets on Maduro’s removal from office. The news of this arrest was reported by sources familiar with the situation to ABC News.

It is reported that the soldier placed bets on the prediction market Polymarket, wagering more than $33,000 just hours before President Donald Trump announced the capture of Maduro in January. These series of bets, totaling over $409,000 in winnings, raised suspicions within the prediction market community and led to a lengthy investigation into whether insider information was used to place these bets.

The soldier, who was directly involved in the military operation that led to Maduro’s capture, placed bets on various outcomes related to Maduro’s removal and a potential U.S. invasion of Venezuela. These bets were made just before President Trump’s announcement of the successful operation, codenamed “Operation Absolute Resolve.”

According to Polymarket records, a trader who created an account in December 2025 placed bets on the U.S. invasion of Venezuela and Maduro’s capture. The largest bet, amounting to $32,537, predicted Maduro’s ousting by January 31 and resulted in a massive profit of $404,222.

This arrest and indictment are believed to be the first instance of the Department of Justice prosecuting a case of insider trading on a prediction market. Polymarket, the leading prediction platform, allows users to anonymously bet on future events using event contracts based on yes or no questions.

While prediction markets are primarily regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, suspicious trades on platforms like Polymarket have raised concerns about insider trading. Another user on Polymarket reportedly made around $550,000 through bets related to the U.S. striking Iran and the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In an interview, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton confirmed that prosecutors were actively investigating ways to prosecute individuals who manipulate prediction markets for personal gain. Clayton mentioned that existing laws, such as the Commodities Exchange Act, could be applied to insider trading cases involving prediction markets.

Despite being a relatively new concept, prediction markets may face legal challenges in prosecuting insider trading cases due to the complexity of the technology involved. Prosecutors may need to simplify the information for juries to understand the case fully.

While this arrest marks a significant development for U.S. authorities, similar prosecutions have occurred globally. In February, an Israeli army reservist and civilian were charged in Israel for using classified information to place bets on Polymarket.