Iranians grapple with whether to flee the country because of the war

KAPIKOY BORDER CROSSING, Turkey — Following the detonation of bombs near her residence in Golestan, Iran, hairdresser Merve Pourkaz made the decision to depart.

Pourkaz, aged 32, embarked on a journey of nearly 1,500 kilometers (932 miles) to a mountainous border crossing in the hopes of finding refuge in the Turkish city of Van.

“If they allow me, I will reside in Van until the conflict ceases,” she shared with The Associated Press as she awaited at the crossing. “If the war persists, I might return and face my fate.”

Pourkaz is among the estimated 3.2 million individuals in Iran who have been displaced since the commencement of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran. While some seek safety within Iran or neighboring nations, others are returning to Iran from abroad to protect their loved ones and properties.

As of now, only a small number of individuals have opted to leave: the U.N. approximates that about 1,300 Iranians cross into Turkey daily since the war started, with some days seeing more returns to Iran than departures. However, Iran’s neighboring countries and Europe are preparing for a potential migration crisis if the conflict prolongs, devising contingency strategies.

While Pourkaz made her way into Turkey, Leila Rabetnezhadfard was heading in the opposite direction.

Rabetnezhadfard, aged 45, was in Istanbul getting ready to marry a German university professor when the war erupted. She postponed the wedding and returned to her hometown in Shiraz, Iran.

“How can I feel at ease in Istanbul when my family is in Iran amidst the conflict?” Rabetnezhadfard questioned, stating that bringing her family to Istanbul wasn’t feasible due to limited space in her apartment, her brother’s medical needs, and the high cost of living there.

“I will not depart Iran until peace is restored,” she affirmed.

The U.N. has cautioned that ongoing conflict is likely to drive more Iranians from their homes.

Similar to the 12-day conflict last year, many Iranians are opting to shelter in place, either lacking the means to flee or due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning on Feb. 28.

“Stay indoors. Do not venture outside. It is extremely perilous. Bombs will rain down everywhere,” he cautioned.

Although a large-scale exodus from Iran has not occurred yet, there have been reports of individuals leaving major cities for safer rural areas bordering the Caspian Sea north of Tehran, as stated by the International Organization for Migration.

“The limited movement out of Iran is primarily due to individuals prioritizing staying with their families, ensuring their safety and protecting their properties, alongside security concerns and logistical challenges,” explained Salvador Gutierrez, head of the IOM’s mission in Iran.

The destruction of Iran’s critical infrastructure could trigger an influx of individuals attempting to cross into neighboring countries like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, and Iraq.

“If Tehran, a city of 10 million inhabitants, faces a water shortage, its residents will seek refuge elsewhere,” noted Alex Vatanka, a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.

Iran is already grappling with a substantial refugee population, primarily consisting of around 2.5 million forcibly displaced individuals from Afghanistan and Iraq.

If the crisis escalates, aid organizations anticipate that refugees will likely gravitate towards Iran’s borders with Iraq and Turkey, spanning approximately 2,200 kilometers (1,367 miles) through rugged alpine terrain inhabited by numerous Kurdish communities and challenging to monitor.

Turkey, which previously implemented an open-door policy allowing millions of Syrian refugees during their prolonged civil war, has shifted its approach for various reasons.

Instead, Turkey has devised plans to accommodate Iranian refugees in “buffer zones” along the border, tent cities, or temporary housing within Turkey, as per Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci quoted in the country’s Hurriyet newspaper.

Iranians fleeing the conflict are unlikely to seek refugee status in Turkey due to the prolonged asylum process, if granted at all, mentioned Sara Karakoyun, an aid worker at the independent Human Resource Development Foundation near the border.

“They are unwilling to endure years of uncertainty for a refugee status that may never materialize,” she added.

Turkey’s defense ministry disclosed in January that the country fortified its border with Iran by erecting concrete walls, optical towers, and observation posts.

Turkey is anticipated to deploy troops to secure its border, closely regulate the influx of individuals, and seek financial aid from the European Union to manage the refugee influx, stated analyst Riccardo Gasco from the IstanPol Institute.

The EU-Turkey relationship was reshaped by the Syrian refugee crisis a decade ago, with a significant number of Syrians seeking refuge in Turkey during their civil war. Many subsequently journeyed to Europe via small boats.

In 2016, Brussels and Ankara brokered a migration agreement where the EU offered incentives and up to 6 billion euros ($7.1 billion) in aid for Syrian refugees in Turkey to dissuade Ankara from permitting tens of thousands of migrants to reach Greece.

While aid groups criticized the deal for creating dire conditions akin to open-air prisons, EU leadership viewed it as a means to prevent migrants from entering EU territory and enhance the welfare of refugees in Turkey.

The renewal of this agreement is forthcoming this year, but Turkish citizens have grown disenchanted with Syrian refugees, and anti-immigrant parties have gained traction in parts of Europe.

Another refugee crisis is unfolding closer to Europe, with the ongoing conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah displacing over 800,000 individuals thus far.

“We are facing a critical situation in the Middle East that could lead to severe humanitarian repercussions at a time when humanitarian funding has been drastically reduced,” remarked Ninette Kelley, chair of the World Refugee & Migration Council, citing the Trump administration’s cuts to USAID. “Is the world prepared for another humanitarian catastrophe?”

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Reporting contributed by McNeil in Brussels. Associated Press writers Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, Fay Abuelgasim in Cairo, and Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad.