Wall Street firm Citrini Research analyzes Strait of Hormuz

Citrini Research Sends Analyst to Strait of Hormuz Amid Tensions

In the midst of escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, Citrini Research has taken a unique approach to analyzing the situation in the critical waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. While others rely on satellite images and official statements, Citrini Research reportedly sent an analyst directly into the conflict zone to gather first-hand observations.

According to a report posted on Substack, the analyst traveled to Oman’s Musandam Peninsula and observed shipping activity in the region. Contrary to the prevailing narrative that the strait is effectively shut down, the analyst found that vessels are still moving through the area. In fact, traffic has been picking up in recent days, with an average of 15 ships passing through the strait daily.

The report suggests that while the flow of traffic is below normal levels, the disruption is partial and evolving rather than absolute. Citrini Research claims that many ships turn off their transponders, making them invisible on official tracking systems like AIS. This has led to an underreporting of shipping volume in the region.

Based on interviews with fishermen, smugglers, and regional officials, the analyst concluded that Iran is selectively allowing ships to pass through the strait. Tankers are required to obtain approval before transiting waters near Iranian territory, creating a “functional checkpoint” rather than a blockade.

While the findings are based on a single field trip and anecdotal accounts, Citrini Research believes that the disruption in the region will be prolonged, leading to a lasting risk premium in oil markets. The firm recommends longer-dated crude exposure, favoring December 2026 WTI contracts over the front month.

In conclusion, Citrini Research’s on-the-ground observations challenge the prevailing narrative about the status of the Strait of Hormuz. While the situation in the region remains fluid and difficult to verify independently, the firm’s nuanced view suggests that the strait is not completely closed but rather experiencing a partial disruption that is likely to persist in the long term.