Kalshi bettors see Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by July
Commercial vessels off the coast of Dubai on April 20, 2026. – | Afp | Getty Images
Bettors on the prediction markets platform Kalshi are not optimistic about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to normal traffic flows anytime soon. The odds that traffic will return to normal by June 1 have dropped below 50% following the extension of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Despite the ceasefire, no new agreement has been reached regarding the reopening of the strait or the U.S. ending its naval blockade.
President Donald Trump’s threat to “shoot and kill” any boat laying mines in the strait has added to the uncertainty surrounding the situation. As a result, oil prices have surged, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel once again.
According to Kalshi, there is only a 42% chance that normal traffic flows will resume through the strait by June 1. The probabilities increase to 59% by July 1 and 61% by August 1. Normal traffic flows are defined as the seven-day moving average of transit calls through the strait based on data from IMF PortWatch.
On Polymarket, bettors are slightly more optimistic, giving a 45% chance that traffic will return to normal by the end of May and a 67% chance by the end of June. However, actual transit through the strait remains minimal. On a recent day, only eight ships, including three oil tankers, crossed the strait, compared to over 100 ships daily before the conflict.
UBS chief investment officer for the Americas, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, believes that a reopening of the strait is still uncertain. She cited remarks from Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who stated that the strait will not reopen as long as the U.S. naval blockade remains in place. Hoffmann-Burchardi warned that prolonged high energy prices could negatively impact economic growth.
Despite the ongoing tensions, Kalshi bettors have reduced the odds of a U.S. recession in 2026 to just under 26%, down from nearly 37% at the end of March. This shift reflects the changing dynamics of the conflict and its potential economic ramifications.
In conclusion, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains fluid, with uncertainties surrounding the reopening of the crucial waterway. Both Kalshi and Polymarket provide insights into the evolving probabilities, but the ultimate outcome remains uncertain. Investors and analysts are closely monitoring developments in the region for potential impacts on global energy markets and economic stability.
