Standard Chartered Calls Crypto Bottom As Bitcoin Price Recovers From $59,000 Low
Standard Chartered’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, has made a bold declaration that the crypto market has hit its cycle low. According to Kendrick, Bitcoin’s recent dip to approximately $59,000 marked the bottom of the latest downturn, representing a 53% drawdown from its October all-time high of $126,000.
In a note issued on Friday, Kendrick expressed his belief that “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” and confidently stated, “I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices for the cycle.” Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin had already started to recover, reaching around $64,000 at the time of Kendrick’s note, indicating a 5% gain over the previous week. The bank maintains a $100,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of the year, a projection that was initially made back in February.
One of the key catalysts mentioned by Kendrick is the historic Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12. The sharp rise in SpaceX shares on debut day, gaining approximately 20%, led to a significant portion of Bitcoin ETF outflows, totaling more than $5.72 billion since the second week of May. Investors were reportedly liquidating their crypto positions to secure allocations in SpaceX. With the IPO now live, Kendrick believes that this selling pressure may ease.
Another catalyst highlighted by Kendrick is geopolitics, specifically a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran ahead of the G7 summit. A peace deal could reduce pressure on global oil supplies, subsequently cooling elevated U.S. Treasury yields that have impacted risk assets like crypto. Lower oil prices could make risk-free government debt more attractive, potentially benefiting crypto assets.
Kendrick outlined three confirmation signals to watch for that would validate his call for the beginning of “crypto spring.” Firstly, he is monitoring for Strategy to announce an additional Bitcoin purchase on Monday, as CEO Michael Saylor’s buying history has been a reliable demand signal for institutional appetite. Secondly, he is expecting U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to return to net-positive daily inflows. Lastly, he is looking for continued declines in global oil prices as the Iran diplomatic situation unfolds.
If all three signals materialize, Kendrick’s thesis of crypto spring gains its strongest validation yet, suggesting that institutional and macro forces are aligning to push Bitcoin towards the bank’s $100,000 year-end target. The evolving landscape of the crypto market presents opportunities for investors to capitalize on potential growth and development in the digital asset space.
