Kalshi traders see higher gas prices lasting through election day
Gas prices in the United States have been on the rise, with the national average reaching $3.84 per gallon, according to AAA. This marks a 5-cent increase from the previous day. The surge in gas prices can be attributed to the recent spike in U.S. oil prices, which soared to $75 per barrel on Wednesday, up from around $68 per barrel earlier in the week. However, WTI crude prices have since dipped below $72 per barrel.
Traders on Kalshi believe that gas prices will remain elevated for an extended period, but they do not foresee them reaching new record highs. They estimate a 43% chance that gas prices will surpass $4.60 per gallon by the end of the year, a slight increase from previous predictions. The peak for gas prices in 2026 occurred on May 21, when the national average hit $4.56 per gallon. Prior to the escalation of tensions with Iran, gas prices in the U.S. were below $3 per gallon.
It is important to note that CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment. This partnership allows for a deeper understanding of market trends and insights into the factors impacting gas prices.
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