Kalshi traders think U.S. oil prices are set to hit new 2026 highs
Gas prices are on the rise, with Western Texas Intermediate crude futures predicted to reach new highs in 2026. Traders on Kalshi believe there is a greater than 50% chance that prices will soar to nearly $127 per barrel this year, surpassing the current closing high of $113 per barrel back in April. Additionally, there is a 63% probability that prices will exceed $120 per barrel.
Despite WTI prices being below their pre-ceasefire levels following the U.S. and Iran conflict resolution in the Middle East, they have rebounded from their lows of $82.59 on April 17. Prices have climbed back above $100, and Brent crude prices have reached a new post-war high. However, oil prices experienced a slight dip after Iran proposed a revised peace agreement to the U.S., which President Donald Trump expressed dissatisfaction with.
The recent decline in WTI oil prices post-ceasefire has partly reversed due to uncertainty surrounding Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. naval blockade in the region. While traders believe that oil prices have not yet peaked this year, they have revised their expectations. Initially, there was a more than 50% chance that prices would exceed $150 per barrel, but now traders only see a 26% likelihood of that happening.
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