Will the Social Security COLA Be Delayed by the Shutdown?

The recent government shutdown has once again halted the flow of federal jobs data and inflation statistics, bringing back memories of a similar situation in 2013. Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner, recalls working in an empty office with just two colleagues during the last shutdown, answering phones and handling the data release delays.

Now, in 2025, with the government shut down over another Affordable Care Act feud, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is behind on key economic data releases. The highly anticipated jobs report for September was not published on Friday, and there are concerns that the upcoming consumer price index (CPI) report for September may also be delayed or skipped.

The delay in economic data releases is not just a political issue – it can have real-life consequences for millions of Americans. The September CPI report is crucial for determining the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 70 million Social Security recipients. Without the inflation report, the COLA announcement could be postponed.

During the last shutdown in 2018-2019, the BLS managed to release key economic reports on time. However, this time around, there are staffing and funding issues that could cause delays. The timing of the COLA announcement for 2026 is uncertain due to the shutdown affecting the release of the inflation report.

Despite the challenges, the BLS has already collected the necessary data to calculate the COLA. The delay in the announcement does not impact the actual COLA percentage, which is currently estimated to be 2.7%. Once the government reopens, it may take some time for the BLS to catch up on processing the data and making the official announcement.

With fewer staff in the office during the shutdown, there are concerns about how quickly the BLS can resume normal operations once funding is restored. The ongoing feud over the Affordable Care Act has both Republicans and Democrats digging in their heels, prolonging the government shutdown and causing uncertainty for Social Security recipients and the Federal Reserve.

The backlog of data releases presents a challenge for the Fed, which cut interest rates in September for the first time in 2025. The delayed data releases were supposed to provide insight into how the economy responded to the rate reduction, making it difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions.

As the shutdown continues, the impact on key economic data releases and the potential delay in the COLA announcement highlight the broader implications of political gridlock on the economy and everyday Americans.