Popular Swiss Bank resets gold price target for the rest of 2026

Gold has experienced a significant pullback from its January highs, dropping approximately 15% from its peak. Despite this correction, Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), a Swiss private bank managing around $233 billion in client assets, remains steadfast in its outlook. UBP reaffirmed its $6,000 per ounce gold price target on April 13, even as the precious metal trades below its January all-time high of approximately $5,600. The bank has been actively rebuilding its gold positions after reducing exposure during the Iran war selloff.

During the Iran war-driven slump, UBP cut its gold allocation from 10% to 3% of discretionary client portfolios. However, the bank has since increased this position to around 6%. Paras Gupta, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management Asia at UBP, stated that they have taken the initial steps to rebuild gold portfolios following the elimination of one-sided positions. He highlighted that institutional and retail gold positioning is now balanced, with structural demand, including central bank buying, fiscal-deficit concerns, and geopolitical tensions, remaining intact.

UBP’s $6,000 gold price target is supported by various factors such as stagflation risks, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, and continued central bank demand. Central banks globally are projected to purchase approximately 950 metric tons of gold in 2026, indicating growing institutional interest in the metal. Additionally, global gold ETF holdings hit a record 4,171 tonnes in February 2026, with total gold demand in 2025 surpassing 5,000 metric tons driven by ETF holdings, central bank accumulation, and bar and coin purchases.

UBP is not the only institution with a bullish outlook on gold. Several major financial institutions have set year-end price targets ranging from $5,400 to $6,300. JPMorgan raised its end-2026 gold forecast to $6,300, while Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale target $6,000. ANZ increased its Q2 2026 forecast to $5,800 per ounce. However, not all analysts share the same optimism, with UBS holding a $5,600 year-end target and Goldman Sachs forecasting $5,400.

Despite the recent correction in gold prices, UBP and other institutions view it as a consolidation rather than a reversal. Gold has surged over 25% since the beginning of 2026, continuing a strong rally from the previous year. The geopolitical risks, pressure on real yields, and ongoing central bank buying support the bullish outlook for gold. UBP remains confident in its $6,000 price target, emphasizing that the conditions driving the metal’s rally have not dissipated.

In conclusion, while the recent pullback in gold prices may appear significant, UBP and other major financial institutions maintain a positive outlook on the precious metal. The underlying factors supporting the uptrend in gold prices continue to be robust, reinforcing the belief in a potential further move higher towards the $6,000 target.