VanEck Flags Dual Bullish Signals For Bitcoin As Funding Turns Negative, Hash Rate Slips
Bitcoin’s latest onchain and derivatives data point to a positive setup, with VanEck highlighting negative funding rates and a clustered hash rate drawdown alongside softer volatility and cautious positioning.
In their recent report, VanEck notes that realized volatility has decreased from about 56% to 41% as tensions between the US and Iran have eased. Additionally, the 7-day average funding rate has dropped to approximately -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023 and in the 10th percentile of readings since late 2020.
Historically, bitcoin has shown an average 30-day return of 11.5% during periods of negative funding, compared to 4.5% across all periods, with a 77% hit rate for positive performance. When annualized funding falls below -5%, subsequent 30-day returns average 19.4%, and 180-day returns reach 70%, making negative funding a consistent contrarian buy signal. VanEck also reports that 19 of the top 50 180-day return windows since 2020 began on days with negative funding, despite these periods representing only about 13.6% of the sample.
On the mining side, the 30-day moving average hash rate has declined to the 16th percentile over 30 days and the 9th percentile over 90 days, while difficulty has fallen to the 5th and 6th percentiles on those horizons. There have been three sustained hash rate decline episodes since December 2025, with the latest drawdown of about 6.7% ending on April 15, 2026. In seven completed historical drawdowns, bitcoin was higher 90 days later in six cases, with a median gain of 37.7% and a 63.1% median gain over 180 days.
Derivatives and onchain activity indicate cautious sentiment rather than capitulation. Put premiums relative to spot volume are more than six times their April 2024 level, while active supply over the last 180 days has decreased to 28.4%, indicating increased holder dormancy.
Long-tenured cohorts, particularly 7-10 year and 10+ year holders, have increased spent volume to the 85th and 90th percentiles of the past four years. However, VanEck emphasizes that such movements do not always signify outright selling.
VanEck concludes that negative funding and hash rate stress create a strengthened bullish backdrop for bitcoin. “Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been linked to strong forward BTC returns. As a result, we have grown more bullish on bitcoin,” the analysts wrote.
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