Will Polymarket Refund Users After Insider Trading Arrest?

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This week, Polymarket and Kalshi have been embroiled in cases of insider trading on their platforms, with the most high-profile incident involving the arrest of Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. special forces soldier, in connection with trades made on the January capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

The major prediction market companies have stated that they are taking disciplinary action in insider trading cases and are cooperating with law enforcement and regulators. However, there has been no mention of refunding individuals who unknowingly participated in compromised markets.

Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke used classified military information to make over $400,000 from bets totaling just over $33,000 on event markets related to Maduro’s capture and potential U.S. involvement in Venezuela.

“Maduro out by January 31, 2026?”

“Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?”

“U.S. Forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”

“Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?”

As of Friday afternoon, Polymarket had not provided any updates on their website regarding refunds for affected markets. Users on various platforms have raised concerns about the lack of clarity on refund policies.

Similarly, Kalshi recently announced fines and sanctions in response to insider trading cases involving congressional candidates betting on their own primaries. The platform has not addressed the issue of refunds for traders involved in these markets.

Both Polymarket and Kalshi have remained silent on the matter of compensating traders who were impacted by insider trading activities. While Polymarket’s terms of service state that transactions are irreversible and non-refundable, there have been instances where refunds were issued for markets with faulty rules or resolution errors.

It is crucial for prediction market platforms to maintain transparency and accountability in cases of insider trading to uphold the integrity of their services and protect the interests of their users.