Strait of Hormuz traffic disrupted until September, Kalshi traders say

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil transportation, remains at the center of attention on prediction markets platform Kalshi. Traders are not optimistic about normal traffic flows returning until late summer or September, with a 57% chance that the strait will operate as usual by September 1. The ongoing ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has not led to any concrete plans for reopening the passageway, leading to uncertainty among traders.

Recent events have added to the tension surrounding the strait. Conflicting reports emerged on Monday, with Iranian state media claiming that Iran had targeted a U.S. warship with missiles, while U.S. Central Command denied any such incident. Additionally, the United Arab Emirates announced that it intercepted Iranian missiles for the first time since the ceasefire began. President Donald Trump also stated that the U.S. military would assist stranded ships near the strait.

These developments have caused traders to reassess their predictions. Just a week ago, traders believed that the strait would reopen by July 1. However, the lack of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has led to a shift in expectations. Traders now see a higher likelihood of the strait reopening by January 1, 2027, with a 76% chance of normal traffic returning by that date.

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