Traders share Pope Leo’s worries on AI’s job market impact

Pope Leo XIV issued a dire warning about the potential “social calamity” that could arise from widespread unemployment caused by the increasing use of artificial intelligence technology. His concerns were highlighted in his first encyclical, a formal teaching document from the leader of the Catholic Church, where he called for global regulation of AI and emphasized the impact it could have on the labor market.

In his encyclical, Pope Leo emphasized the importance of prioritizing human dignity and the common good over the pursuit of profits. He stated, “The human person is an end, not a means, and the economic order must remain subordinate to human dignity and the common good.” This message underscores the need for ethical considerations in the development and implementation of AI technologies.

Market predictions on Kalshi reflect the seriousness of the situation, with a 60% probability of U.S. unemployment exceeding 8% before 2030 and a 47% chance of it surpassing 9% in the same timeframe. Such high unemployment rates are typically associated with severe economic recessions or significant job displacements.

While Kalshi traders currently view the likelihood of a recession in 2026 as low at 16%, the odds increase significantly to 45% in 2027. These projections indicate a growing concern about the potential economic impact of AI-driven automation and job cuts.

Pope Leo’s encyclical also addressed the issue of unemployment, describing it as a “grave evil” and acknowledging the temporary labor displacements that often accompany technological advancements. Despite assurances from AI proponents that mass labor disruptions are unlikely, the pope remains vigilant about the potential consequences of widespread job losses.

Leo emphasized the importance of work as a fundamental aspect of human experience, providing not only sustenance but also opportunities for expression, relationships, and community contributions. He cautioned against a society that limits employment opportunities, leading to widespread inactivity, lack of responsibility, and cultural impoverishment.

In conclusion, Pope Leo XIV’s concerns about the impact of AI on employment highlight the need for ethical and responsible development of technology. By prioritizing human dignity and the common good, we can strive to create a future where technological advancements benefit society as a whole.