Galaxy Research Cuts CLARITY Act Passage Odds To 50-50 As Senate Clock Runs Out

Galaxy Digital’s Research Arm Downgrades Odds of CLARITY Act Passing in 2026

Galaxy Digital’s research arm has revised its estimate of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 50-50, down from 60% just three weeks ago. This change is attributed to a Senate floor calendar that is shrinking each week and a bill that still lacks a merged text, a scheduled vote, or public commitment from leadership.

The downgrade, published by Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn, is more of a calendar story than a substance story. The CLARITY Act, officially known as the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, passed the Senate Banking Committee with a 15-9 vote on May 14. However, it has been sitting on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423 without a set floor date or motion to proceed.

The CLARITY Act is a significant attempt by Congress to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets. It delineates the jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, sets standards for determining whether a digital asset is a commodity or a security, and includes the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA) to protect certain blockchain developers and node operators.

Although the bill garnered bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee, further progress has been slow. The House passed a similar market structure legislation in 2024, but reconciling the Senate’s Banking and Agriculture committee texts has proven challenging. A unified legislative text has yet to be disclosed to the public.

Challenges Ahead for the CLARITY Act

The Senate faces a tight timeline for a 60-vote bill like the CLARITY Act. With the August recess approaching, a merged Banking-Agriculture text must be finalized, a motion to proceed must be filed, floor debate and amendment processes must occur, and the House must act on the Senate’s version.

Thorn emphasized that Senate Majority Leader John Thune needs to announce floor time by early July for a July vote to be feasible. Otherwise, the timeline may shift to September, which could clash with midterm-election dynamics that complicate scheduling contentious votes.

The competition for floor time has intensified, with other pressing legislative matters vying for attention. The calendar congestion, coupled with unresolved issues in the bill’s substance, presents additional hurdles to the CLARITY Act’s passage.

Galaxy’s research identified key conditions that could improve the odds of the bill passing, including reaching a consensus on the combined text, resolving ethics and BRCA disputes, and securing a floor commitment for July. Without progress on these fronts, the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law diminishes.

As it stands, the bill remains at No. 423 on the Senate calendar, awaiting its turn in a chamber preoccupied with other legislative priorities.