Bettors wagered millions on this weekend’s expected snowfall across the U.S.
Bettors looking to capitalize on the recent snowstorm over the weekend turned to prediction markets to place their bets on the expected snowfall accumulation across the United States. With more than $6 million wagered on just the snow totals for New York City, online platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi saw a surge in activity.
Polymarket and Kalshi allowed users to bet on the amount of snowfall in various locations in the U.S. One market on Polymarket titled “How many inches of snow in NYC this weekend? (Jan 24-26)” saw over $1.2 million in bets placed. Based on the bets received, the consensus was that New York City would receive a total of 11 inches of snow. However, the final outcome is yet to be determined, and bettors will only be able to cash out or suffer losses once the official totals for the weekend are released by NOAA.
Polymarket specified that they would be using NOAA’s “New Snow (IN)” daily figures for the New York–Central Park area to determine the outcome of the market. The most popular range for snowfall in New York City was between 10 to 12 inches, with shares trading at 90 cents each on Monday morning.
The leading bettor had purchased over 8,100 shares at 61 cents each, predicting this outcome and also betting on 12 to 14 inches of snowfall. These bets are still active as the final result has not been announced.
Besides New York City, bettors also placed wagers on snowfall in Washington, D.C., and predicted which cities like Atlanta and Seattle would see snow over the weekend.
Kalshi’s NYC Snowfall Wager
On Kalshi, another prediction market, bettors wagered a significant sum on a similar question regarding snowfall in New York City from Jan 24-26. More than $5 million had been bet on this market by Monday morning, with a 99% likelihood of over 10 inches of snow accumulation.
The market on Kalshi closes at 11:59 p.m. Eastern time and will use data from the National Weather Service to determine the winning bets.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to trade shares in the outcomes of various future events, providing insights into consumer and investor sentiments. These markets have gained attention recently, such as when an anonymous trader correctly predicted that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be captured, earning over $463,000 in the process.
While these markets are lightly regulated and susceptible to manipulation, the outcome of events like a snowstorm is more challenging to control. They offer a unique platform for individuals to engage in speculative betting on a wide range of events.
