Energy experts say gas prices are likely to remain high for months. Here’s why.

Gas prices in the United States have been a major concern for American motorists, with the average price of a gallon of regular gas currently at $4.29. This is a decrease from the peak price of over $4.50 in May, but still significantly higher than the $2.98 average just before the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. Experts predict that it could take until mid-to-late 2027 for prices to return to pre-war levels.

The main factor contributing to the high gas prices is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the closure of the vital waterway, the Strait of Hormuz. This strait normally accounts for about 20% of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. Even if a peace deal is reached between the US and Iran and the strait is reopened, it will take months, if not years, for the situation to fully normalize.

Oil prices are expected to fall immediately if a deal is announced, but gas prices will take longer to decrease. This is because it will take time for oil tankers to resume traveling through the strait and for global oil supplies to rebound. Additionally, oil needs to be delivered to refineries to be turned into gas and other energy products.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will require oil-producing nations to restart facilities and return to typical output levels, a process that could take weeks. Global oil inventories are currently low and will need time to replenish, keeping gas prices elevated for the foreseeable future. Experts liken this process to trying to fill an Olympic-size swimming pool with a garden hose.

The impact of high gas prices is already being felt by American consumers, with inflation reaching an annual rate of 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023. According to estimates by Brown University researchers, households have spent an additional $401 on gas and diesel since the start of the Iran war.

Overall, the situation with gas prices in the US is complex and will take time to fully resolve. While a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could eventually lead to lower prices, the process is expected to be slow and gradual. In the meantime, American motorists will continue to face pain at the pump.