Kalshi bettors see Warsh confirmed in May after DOJ drops Powell probe

Kevin Warsh, the nominee for chairman of the US Federal Reserve by President Donald Trump, has seen a significant boost in his confirmation odds on prediction markets platform Kalshi. This surge comes after the Department of Justice announced that it was dropping its inquiry into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

According to bettors on Kalshi, there is now an 86% chance that Warsh will be approved by the U.S. Senate by May 15, with more than a 97% chance of confirmation by June 1. Prior to the investigation being dropped, the likelihood of confirmation by May 15 was only around 30%.

The conclusion of the inquiry fulfills a crucial demand from Senator Thom Thillis, a Republican from North Carolina. While Thillis expressed his support for Warsh as the Fed chair, he made it clear that he would not vote to advance the nomination until the investigation into Powell was resolved.

As a member of the Senate Banking Committee, Thillis’ stance could have significant implications for Warsh’s nomination. If he were to vote against advancing Warsh’s nomination, along with all Democrats on the committee opposing the selection by President Trump, it could block Warsh’s chances of reaching the Senate floor.

Although Thillis has not issued an official statement following the dropping of the inquiry, bettors on platforms like Polymarket believe that this development paves the way for Warsh’s candidacy. They now place an 81% chance of confirmation by May 15 and a 98% chance by June 1.

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In conclusion, the dropping of the investigation into Powell has significantly improved Kevin Warsh’s chances of becoming the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. With support growing on prediction markets, it seems increasingly likely that Warsh will secure confirmation in the coming weeks. Stay tuned for updates on this developing story.